結語
民意作為重要的“第三方因素”在國際政治的舞台扮演著越來越重要的角色。伴隨著中美關係的動盪發展，美國涉台民意也呈現出特殊的波動趨勢，這將影響到美國對華與涉台政策和中美關係的健康發展。在美國官方和民間的雙重塑造下，民眾認為台灣在中美關係中的重要程度提升，對台好感度上升對華好感度下降，尤其是在俄烏衝突以後更加關注大陸武統台灣問題，支持美國協防台灣的占比上升，在台灣問題相關議題上逐漸形成了兩黨共識，普遍支持美台關係進一步深入發展。但大多數人對台灣問題和兩岸關係的瞭解程度不足，民眾對於台灣問題的看法可能隨著現實狀況有所波動。之所以美國民意出現這樣的變化主要是由於五個方面的因素使然，即美國政府開啟全面對華戰略競爭，民意與政見互動挺台反中呈跨黨社會共識；俄烏衝突持續，“今日烏克蘭，明日台灣”輿論氛圍影響公眾認知；台灣當局不斷提高國際能見度，推行倚美謀獨政策；媒體、智庫和學者的涉台表述更加強硬，間接導致民眾對台認知的不理性；中國實力的提升和統一政治意願的增強，中美實力差距縮小。美國對台民意的變化造成了一定的影響，不僅會塑造美國政府對台政策，導致中美敵意螺旋上升，而且還會縱容“台獨”勢力，不利於兩岸關係和台海局勢穩定。因此，中國必須要重視美國涉台民意的變化，在宏觀上保持戰略定力和耐力，積極處理好中美競合關係中的台灣問題，同時努力突破“今日烏克蘭，明日台灣”的敘事框架，注重中國“一國兩制”和一個中國原則的國際話語敘事，推動多元化公共外交的發展，從而改善美國涉台民意，為兩岸關係發展與中美關係穩定提供有利的輿論空間。與此同時，需要注意的是，民意調查數據即使出自專業機構，調研方法較為科學規範，也並不意味著調查結果是絕對真實的。政治取向、年齡、媒體以及民調問題與選項的設計本身都會在一定程度上對結果產生影響，認識到民調偏差的存在有助於更客觀地理解和分析這些民調結果。
註釋：
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（全文刊載於《中國評論》月刊2023年9月號，總第309期） |
